With what seems like daily inconsistent grave announcements by each side in the U.S.-Iran war, it is rightly hard to focus on other international matters. But the China-U.S. relationship is one that bears constant attention given not only its worldwide impact, but its potential for constraining U.S. efforts in the war and even the U.S. ability to influence China’s aggressive efforts to absorb Taiwan.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s scheduled meeting for the end of March was delayed to mid-May because of the U.S. focus on the war. There had been optimism on both sides as to what might be accomplished to reset the relationship. China’s foreign minister stated that 2026 will be a “landmark year” for “sound, steady and sustainable development of China-U.S. relations.” But China has the United States in a vice, and its grip has been strengthened by the U.S. war with Iran.
The United States and the rest of the world are dependent on China for rare earth minerals that power our defense industry and tech sector. These minerals are used for our weaponry, semiconductors industry and everyday life consumer products including phones and electric vehicles. China not only dominates the market with its reserves of such minerals but more importantly with the processing to achieve finished products. China’s control over about 90% of the rare mineral processing market will not change for a long time. The United States intends to diversify, but it takes as much as 29 years for a U.S. mine to obtain permits to operate, and the processing to a finished product creates tremendous objectionable environmental consequences and is costly. There is only one operating rare earth mine in the United States and our government recently invested $400 million in it.
China’s monopoly is intentional and fueled by subsidies that make it near impossible for potential competitors to enter the marketplace. That stranglehold provides tremendous leverage, which China is not shy about using. For example, when last year Japan Prime Minister Tanae Takaichi merely uttered the words that a China blockade of Taiwan would cause a “survival situation for Japan” justifying potential use of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, China cut off Japan’s supply of rare earth minerals for two months. President Xi has long made clear his intentions regarding Taiwan, reportedly telling President Trump in a phone call last November that “Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the postwar international order. “
It is clear as well that in October of last year, the Trump administration was forced to moderate its punitive tariff policy toward China because of its ability to restrict the export of finished rare earth minerals. According to a November 2025 Morgan Stanley report, China dialed back its restrictions on rare earth exports but in a way that “keeps a calibrated choke point in place” that enables both sides to maintain an equilibrium whereby the United States receives rare earths and China receives U.S. chips.
The U.S war with Iran has only given China additional leverage. According to reporting from the South China Morning Post, as of March the United States had only two months inventory of rare earth minerals and asserted that the U.S. reliance on China “means China could dictate how long U.S. strikes on Iran can go on” in addition to leverage regarding other “conflicts.” Politico reports that with Iran’s missile and drone strikes on missile defense systems at seven U.S bases in the Mideast, the resulting defensive response has rapidly depleted U.S. supplies, which will take years to rebuild.
As the United States seeks to wean itself from dependence on China, its work with allies to diversify is hampered by the transactional nature of U.S. policy and doubts about the U.S. ongoing commitment to anything it agrees to. To the extent the administration works with our domestic industry for both mining and processing, it has an uphill battle. The United States needs to reassure allies of a common interest in independence from China, and encourage private industry to make long-term investments which in the current environment, will need government subsidies and guaranteed purchases.
Jim Hartnett, Navy veteran, attorney, strategic consultant. Graduate of Sophia University International Division (Tokyo) and holder of a Certificate in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School.
Thanks for your guest perspective, Mr. Hartnett. Let’s assume your assertions are true. A few potential actions… Perhaps the U.S. corners the market on oil and coal. China has rare earths but they won’t have energy to process these minerals. A mutually beneficial trade can be made. Fossil fuels for processed minerals. Meanwhile, the U.S. can build processing facilities. We can executive order our way to fast track permits and take the money saved from USAID and California hospice aid to provide seed money. If environmental consequences are still a worry, we can process in another country. Say, turn Canada into our 51st state. There are plenty of uninhabited or sparsely populated areas in Canada.
I appreciate Mr. Harnett’s addressing the topic of China and US national security. At least ten radars were destroyed by Iran including the most advanced model in Qatar that was only six that the US has in operation around the world. It cost over $1B and will take up to eight years to replace. It requires nearly 200 pounds of rare earth minerals including gallium, which China controls. China, for its own national security, doesn’t want to sell the materials openly to countries that are hostile to it. The tone of the LTE is that China is a hostile aggressor and wants to invade Taiwan at any time. I disagree. China uses diplomacy and complies with international law. The issue of Taiwan warrants study for context. The history of modern China is long and complex, but the Taiwan was part of China before Japan colonized it for fifty years (along with Korea), and that ended with the defeat of Japan in the Second World War. Chiang Kai-shek ran a kleptocracy as leader of China and looted the banks when Mao’s Red Army defeated him. He took the looted money and set up on Taiwan. Before that, he and his cronies stole the Lend-Lease war material and money the US gave for the war against Japan. He would rather use arms against Mao’s army than Japan’s army, whom he collaborated with (see Seagrave, P. and Seagrave, S. (1985) The Soong Dynasty, Sidgwick and Jackson). After fleeing to Taiwan he was supported by the US national security establishment as an anti-communist force, who used Chiang’s heroin networks to fund clandestine operations in Asia including the attempted armed overthrow of China and funding the wars in Southeast Asia. Today, about 40 percent of Taiwan exports and 20 percent of its imports come from China. China is not foolish enough to invade Taiwan. It could simply cut off trade. China takes its maritime security seriously because of the two Opium Wars, over 100 years ago. The balance of trade was overwhelmingly toward China because of London’s demand for tea, silk, porcelain and other fine goods. Britain flooded the country with opium from British colonies. China fought back and saw a humiliating defeat at the Royal Navy, which forced the opening of trade and the carving up of China by western powers, including the United States.
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(2) comments
Thanks for your guest perspective, Mr. Hartnett. Let’s assume your assertions are true. A few potential actions… Perhaps the U.S. corners the market on oil and coal. China has rare earths but they won’t have energy to process these minerals. A mutually beneficial trade can be made. Fossil fuels for processed minerals. Meanwhile, the U.S. can build processing facilities. We can executive order our way to fast track permits and take the money saved from USAID and California hospice aid to provide seed money. If environmental consequences are still a worry, we can process in another country. Say, turn Canada into our 51st state. There are plenty of uninhabited or sparsely populated areas in Canada.
I appreciate Mr. Harnett’s addressing the topic of China and US national security. At least ten radars were destroyed by Iran including the most advanced model in Qatar that was only six that the US has in operation around the world. It cost over $1B and will take up to eight years to replace. It requires nearly 200 pounds of rare earth minerals including gallium, which China controls. China, for its own national security, doesn’t want to sell the materials openly to countries that are hostile to it. The tone of the LTE is that China is a hostile aggressor and wants to invade Taiwan at any time. I disagree. China uses diplomacy and complies with international law. The issue of Taiwan warrants study for context. The history of modern China is long and complex, but the Taiwan was part of China before Japan colonized it for fifty years (along with Korea), and that ended with the defeat of Japan in the Second World War. Chiang Kai-shek ran a kleptocracy as leader of China and looted the banks when Mao’s Red Army defeated him. He took the looted money and set up on Taiwan. Before that, he and his cronies stole the Lend-Lease war material and money the US gave for the war against Japan. He would rather use arms against Mao’s army than Japan’s army, whom he collaborated with (see Seagrave, P. and Seagrave, S. (1985) The Soong Dynasty, Sidgwick and Jackson). After fleeing to Taiwan he was supported by the US national security establishment as an anti-communist force, who used Chiang’s heroin networks to fund clandestine operations in Asia including the attempted armed overthrow of China and funding the wars in Southeast Asia. Today, about 40 percent of Taiwan exports and 20 percent of its imports come from China. China is not foolish enough to invade Taiwan. It could simply cut off trade. China takes its maritime security seriously because of the two Opium Wars, over 100 years ago. The balance of trade was overwhelmingly toward China because of London’s demand for tea, silk, porcelain and other fine goods. Britain flooded the country with opium from British colonies. China fought back and saw a humiliating defeat at the Royal Navy, which forced the opening of trade and the carving up of China by western powers, including the United States.
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