California K-12 schools see largest enrollment decline since pandemic

The biggest declines were in private schools, with a 6.6% drop in enrollment, and home schools, with a 3.7% decline, according to state officials. Traditional public school enrollment dropped 1.4% and charter public school enrollment fell by 0.3%.

State officials attribute the enrollment dip to an ongoing decline in birth rates and immigration losses.

The California Department of Finance, which makes demographic projections for the state, estimated last October that enrollment would decline by only 10,000 students, or about 0.2%.

Districts are shoring up enrollment losses with cuts

California funds schools based on average daily attendance. The new enrollment figures may not surprise district leaders, who have the staff to track births, housing projections and other factors, but smaller districts may have to redo attendance-based revenue projections for the coming years, said Kenneth Kapphahn, principal fiscal analyst for the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office. 

The impact on schools is real and immediate, Kindra Britt, communications director for California County Superintendents, said. 

“That translates directly into budget deficits, staff layoffs, program cuts, and in some cases, school closures,” Britt said.

The continuing trend of declining enrollment is a new reality the state must adapt to, Troy Flint, chief information officer for the California School Boards Association, said. Even when enrollment declines, costs to operate the school remain the same, he said. 

The decline in enrollment statewide will not affect overall TK-12 state funding, which will continue to be about 40% of the state’s general fund, and is projected to rise significantly in 2025-26.

Declining enrollment is a national problem

Nationwide K-12 school enrollment has declined by 2.3% or 1.18 million students over the past five years, according to the Education Commission of the States. National projections predict that the country will lose another 2.7 million students by 2031.

All 39 states that released enrollment data for this school year have experienced a decline, Elizabeth Sanders, director of communications and public relations for the CDE, said. About half of the states had larger enrollment losses than California.

Half the enrollment loss in the state is in L.A. County

Los Angeles County lost 32,953 students, more than half from the Los Angeles Unified School District. The 2.6% decline in county enrollment accounted for 43% of the state’s loss.  

The number of newcomer students in LAUSD has dropped over the past two years after reaching a peak of 5% of the student population in 2023-24. Newcomer students are generally defined as students with limited English proficiency who have attended a U.S. school for three years or less.

LAUSD Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, who is on administrative leave, has blamed the decline on “a climate of fear and instability created by the ongoing immigration crackdowns,” according to the Los Angeles Times. 

Declining enrollment was one of the main reasons for the budget deficits that led Los Angeles Unified to issue 3,200 layoff notices in February, according to district officials. The layoffs are expected to actually result in 650 job losses.

Number of Hispanic students has dropped

Hispanic students, who make up 56% of California’s student population, had the biggest loss in student enrollment, but not the largest percentage. The number of Hispanic students dropped by 48,064 or 1.48%, while the number of white students dropped by 31,076, or 2.68%.

The number of English learners also dropped by 8.2%, although the decline could be attributed, in part, to students being reclassified as proficient in English.

“We surmise that a portion of the enrollment loss is driven by current immigration enforcement activities; how long and to what extent that will continue is the crux of that question,” H.D. Palmer, deputy director of external affairs for the California Department of Finance, said.

Immigrant families have been afraid to send their students to school, said Martha Hernandez, executive director of Californians Together, a coalition of 40 organizations focused on the educational success of English learners.

School staff have tried to assure families that it is safe for their children to go to school, but some families have opted to self-deport or simply leave the state or region for a safer place, she said. 

Immigration losses are likely to have continued to have an impact on school enrollment. Immigration to the state declined from 312,761 to 109,278 between 2024 and 2025, according to the United States Census.

Charter school skews Sacramento numbers

Sacramento County had a 9,744 drop in enrollment in its schools overall, a decline of 3.8%; while Orange County had 7,518, Santa Clara 4,198, San Diego 4,190, San Bernardino 2,543 and Ventura County 2,345 fewer students than last year.

Despite Sacramento’s ranking as the county with the second-largest loss in enrollment, two of its districts were listed as having some of the highest enrollment gains. Elk Grove Unified grew by 1,097 students, or 1.7% — making it the district with the largest enrollment gain in the state. Folsom Cordova Unified gained 537 students, an increase of 2.5%. 

The disparity in Sacramento County seems to be the result of a large enrollment dip in Twin Rivers Unified, which lost 12,300 students the same year Highlands Community Charter and Technical Schools laid off teachers and staff following a state audit that found it did not have enough teachers with the proper credentials.  

Regions with lower costs grew

The counties with the largest gains in enrollment this year are in Northern California and the Central Valley.

“There are counties and regions in California where there’s actually a sharp increase in school enrollment, and we’re seeing a direct correlation there between economies that are livable for families and where students are enrolling in school,” Sanders said. “And then of the students who remain, those families are moving to areas that are more affordable for them to live.”

The seven counties with the largest increases in enrollment are San Joaquin County, 842; Placer County, 841; Sutter County, 802; Butte County, 200; San Benito County, 146; Glenn County, 82; and Yuba County, 58.

More kids are attending transitional kindergarten

The drop in enrollment was offset somewhat by a 20.1% increase in students attending transitional kindergarten, after the state fully implemented enrollment for all 4-year-old students this school year. An additional 36,000 children were enrolled in transitional kindergarten this year, bringing the total to 213,313.

There was a 16% increase in the percentage of socioeconomically disadvantaged families that enrolled their children in the state’s transitional kindergarten program. There were also almost 20% more students with disabilities and almost 11% more homeless students in transitional kindergarten this year than last year.

There were fewer English learners listed in transitional kindergarten as a result of Assembly Bill 2268, which exempted transitional kindergarten students from taking the English Language Proficiency Assessment for California.

EdSource reporter Betty Márquez Rosales contributed to this report. EdSource, an independent nonprofit organization founded in 1977, is dedicated to providing analysis on key education issues facing the state and nation. Go to edsource.org to learn more.