A train heads north at Broadway in Burlingame.
A little over a month after BART laid out its tentative plan to close 15 stations if it didn’t receive funding, Caltrain also warned it could close one-third of all stations and eventually shut down passenger service altogether.
The agencies are relying heavily on the passage of an upcoming November ballot measure in several Bay Area counties, including San Mateo, in which voters will decide whether to help eliminate major transit agencies’ deficits through a 14-year sales tax measure.
Funds from the regional ballot measure would also go toward other transit agencies, including AC Transit, Muni and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority.
Caltrain’s and BART’s recent back-up plans are meant to highlight what could happen if it doesn’t pass and if comparable external funding isn’t provided.
Caltrain faces an annual $75 million average deficit for the next 15 years starting in fiscal year 2027, which begins this July.
“I don’t want to bury the lede by any means,” Executive Director Michelle Bouchard said during the board meeting April 2. “Absent external funding in [fiscal year 2028], we will be talking to this board about needing to cut service … in some very profound ways.”
During the board meeting, Caltrain staff stated they may have to close more than one-third of all its stations, go to hourly-only service, and get rid of weekend service and nighttime service past 9 p.m. The possible closure of BART stations would also have a compounding effect on ridership.
Even with all the cuts, Caltrain would still be in a roughly $52 million average annual deficit, and without a massive injection of funds beyond fiscal year 2028, Caltrain and BART “may have to stop passenger service and focus exclusively on maintenance and safety of the corridor and assets,” the presentation stated.
“Once shut down, it would take a minimum of two to four years to resume passenger service,” Melissa Jones, deputy director of Policy Development at Caltrain, said.
The discussion comes a year and a half after Caltrain launched its $2.5 billion electrification effort, which increased service frequency and has subsequently led to a growth in ridership, especially over the weekends.
“What does that mean to service if it’s zero? Does Caltrain exist anymore?” said Board Member Jeff Gee, also a member of the Redwood City Council. “This is the brutal, honest point of having this conversation. That has to be a scenario.”
The board did not vote on the station closure plan, which will be further discussed before the agency adopts next year’s budget in June.
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GoodCitizen said:
CA Is Burning said:
GoodCitizen said:
Just like Trump wrote 'Art of the Deal.' LOL.
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(7) comments
Folks, don’t fall for the fear mongering coming from transit companies. They’re only interested in ensuring their ever-increasing salaries, pensions, and benefits are paid. For instance, do a search for “recent [insert transit company here] raises” and you’ll see that these folks are making out like bandits. Remember, these transit companies are and were staffed at 100% capacity with 50% or less ridership, especially during the COVID years. I’d recommend everyone call their bluff and vote NO on any proposal looking to transfer your hard-earned money to their union wallets. Let’s force these transit companies to practice fiscal management.
This is the fault of former CEO Jim Hartnett - he failed to put this agency on solid footing. That's the problem when you put politicians in positions that require professionals.
Nope, as with many and most problems in California, this is the fault of our government, unions, and the pensions guaranteed that cannot be adjusted based on financial realities. Public employees Unions need to be dissolved and or their powers must be brought under control. There should be no more guarantees when the system is fraught with abuse and unreasonable guarantees that rely on fluctuating markets.
I love public transit and the new electrified Caltrain is amazing. But until and unless I see a list of cost savings: staff rationalization, pension reform, greater automation, I am voting no. The answer isn't always more money, it needs to also be lower costs.
While I agree with the thrust of your comments, the Caltrain electrification was a DISASTER, rather than a success. Read here for the comments of a Professor at the Marron institute in NYC: https://gemini.google.com/share/a1db767d2788
The example set here is actually scaring off other agencies world-wide from attempting similar projects...
Btw. there is a simple way of calling this bluff.
- Just tell the CEO that she will be fired if she can't balance a budget.
- Just tell the Board that they will be merged with any of the other 28 transportation agencies in the Bay Area
- Just tell staff they might be losing their jobs in such mergers and in the name of synergy.
And then look how quickly they find the money and still increase service.
Here is a fresh, detailed analysis of the Caltrain issue.
https://shiftbayarea.substack.com/p/caltrains-overwrought-doomsday-scenario
In brief, they caused the problem and rather than fix it properly, they'd rather just get taxpayers (rather than beneficiaries) to pay more, so they don't have to exercise fiscal prudence.
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